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　　In the past three years, in the domestic primary market, there have been three hot concepts that institutions are eager to pursue, or, in fashionable terms, are called "tracks":

1. Hard technology, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, drones, etc.

2. Offline consumption, including milk tea shops, cafes, taverns and even script killings, etc.

3. Web3.0, including but not limited to "Metaverse".

　　Among the above three tracks, hard technology started with the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2019, and will continue to heat up in 2020-21, while attracting the favor of the "national team", RMB funds and US dollar funds - in the past, this was very rare. However, the scale of investment in hard technology is too large, and the period for forming profitability is too long, and the more reliable sub-sectors have long been occupied. After Megvii Technology failed to go public and SenseTime could only conduct a "beggar-style IPO" in Hong Kong stocks, the trend of hard technology in the primary market has been relatively obvious.

　　Offline consumption is booming in the second half of 2020, and will quickly reach a peak in 2021, creating a lot of myths that a single store is valued at hundreds of millions and a brand is valued at tens of billions. It is a pity that people are not as good as heaven. In 2022, the continuous "static management" will greatly damage the vitality of most consumption scenarios, and the trend of opening stores has turned into a trend of closing stores. The largest investor in offline consumption, the Internet giant, has also fallen into a situation where it is difficult to protect itself, and can only sit and watch the valuation collapse.

　　At the same time, there are still some "second-hot tracks" with less attention and longer duration, such as games going overseas, tide play, silver-haired economy, etc. Their rise often dates back to before 2018, and is no stranger to investors in both the primary and secondary markets. However, they have not escaped the capital ebb tide in 2022, and except for the very few companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in cash flow, the rest are a near-death situation.

　　A week ago, I discussed the current situation with a group of friends who are still starting a business (all of them are warriors), and everyone agreed: At this moment, most of the early-stage entrepreneurial projects that can be successfully funded are Web 3.0, or at least To play a banner of Web3.0; however, this does not mean that Web3.0 will have a bright future. In the words of an entrepreneur friend:

　　"Many Web3.0 entrepreneurs did not expect the establishment of a business model from the very beginning, but focused on taking advantage of the current trend to cut investors' leeks. Investors are well aware of this, not only do not object, but also hope to cooperate with Entrepreneurs join forces to cut down the leeks of people. Many popular tracks are games of drumming and passing flowers, but it is very rare that everyone actively cooperates with drumming and passing flowers from the very beginning like Web3.0.”

　　From my personal experience, it does. In the past three months, more than a dozen WeChat friends have said to me, "We have a business plan, can you help me look at it and connect with potential investors?"

　　There is no doubt that these business plans are all Web3.0, without exception. About 80% of them are digital collections (NFTs), and the rest include virtual idols, VR movies, online script kills, and more. The project planner also knows how difficult it is to raise funds in the current environment, so he repeatedly emphasized: "We adopt a new type of decentralized financing, and the purchase of digital collections is also an investment method. Even individuals can only spend tens of yuan to A few hundred dollars to invest. ”

　　There are not many people who are willing to give out tens or hundreds of yuan to try their luck. Most of these people will choose to buy lottery tickets, and the price/performance ratio may be higher. Of course, 5% of the project parties are serious, but this does not change the reality that 95% of the project parties want to cut leeks. Thousands of "Web 3.0 business plans" are circulating in WeChat groups, and a large part of them may never be downloaded and opened.

　　Specifically, those "digital collection projects" under the banner of Web3.0 can be subdivided into the following types:

1. Own IP, or represent popular IP, distribute popular digital collections to millions of fans. This is very rare because such a project does not run out of money.

2. Relying on an ordinary and unremarkable literary and artistic work, speculatively issue digital collections. If you think this kind of behavior is unreliable, the other party will use the "boring ape" to refute you, and firmly call himself the next "boring ape".

3. It claims to be able to make a fuss about the secondary market transaction of digital collections (currently prohibited in China), because the Shanghai Free Trade Zone put forward the statement of "exploring NFT transactions" a while ago. Obviously, this kind of exploration may be deadlocked for ten, twenty years, or even come to an end.

4. Development tools and supporting environments for digital collections, involving technologies such as VR/AR, virtual idols, and game engines. On the contrary, there may indeed be some new things in this field, and it can also be related to "hard technology". In the current environment, it is mainly this category that can get investment.

　　Don't get me wrong, I believe in the future of Web 3.0. I believe that with the blessing of blockchain, VR/AR technology, and decentralization (DAO), human beings will one day enter the "metaverse". Recently, we often see some science fiction writers opposing the "real sea of stars" and "metaverse", arguing that human beings should explore the real space instead of indulging in the virtual world - my opinion is exactly the opposite . First of all, there will be no choice between "the sea of stars and the Metaverse"; secondly, if there is a choice between the two, then the Metaverse will definitely win, and this will not depend on human will.

　　Since the birth of the Internet, the contradiction between "platform/channel side" and "product/content side" has never ceased. In the era of mobile Internet, the platform side has an absolute advantage, and is constantly embezzling the content side's territory; the result is that all entrepreneurs want to build their own platforms, and all investors want to invest in the mainstream platforms in the future. The power of the platform is even so powerful that regulators in various countries are afraid. However, if Web 3.0 is really established (in my opinion, this issue does not need to be discussed, it must be established), it means that the competition between the platform side and the content side will have a permanent end. The latter will win.

　　In the classical and medieval times of human civilization, the nomadic/fishing and hunting peoples had the upper hand in the competition with the sedentary peoples most of the time. Even if the latter wins occasionally, it is not enough to completely control the former, and it can only prevent the former from infringing for the time being. In the 13th century, the nomadic empire of the Mongols conquered most of the known world; in the 17th century, the nomadic empire of the Mughals and the fishing and hunting empire of the Qing Dynasty conquered the two most extensive lands in the east, while the semi-nomadic Ottoman Turkish Empire is still invading. the heart of Europe. If our history textbooks only cover the history before the 18th century, we will come to the wrong conclusion that "settled peoples have to be slaughtered before horseback peoples".

　　The above conclusion is wrong because two industrial revolutions broke out in the 18th and 19th centuries - the demographic and intellectual superiority of the sedentary peoples finally overwhelmingly surpassed the military superiority of the nomadic/fishing and hunting peoples. The cities of the sedentary peoples grew in size, capable of smelting ore and coal from far and wide to make formidable rifles, maxims, and gatlings. Before the birth of the Gatling gun, the horseback people were the most feared conquerors in Eurasia; after the popularization of the Gatling gun, they became good actors who can sing and dance.

　　The same is true of the Web 3.0 revolution we are currently experiencing. In this revolution, the idea of cutting leeks with the thinking of the mobile Internet is like trying to arm the nomads with Gatling guns in the industrial revolution. Whenever I see someone claiming to be a "Web 3.0 platform", I can't help laughing: the ultimate goal of Web 3.0 is to break all centralized platforms. Many people who are cutting leeks under the banner of Web3.0 are not even willing to believe in the spirit of Web3.0. This is what disappoints me the most.

　　From this point of view, the business that is most in line with the spirit of Web3.0 is very simple, that is, the ancient content business and product business. Do the content well, do the product well, and make high-quality things, that's all. In the era of mobile Internet, investors will be afraid that you will be squeezed by the platform, plagiarized by the platform or cut leeks; in the era of Web3.0, most of the above worries will disappear. If you have direct access to end users and enjoy the vast majority of the fruits of your own products, then why don't you make products well? (Unless you lack ability, then you shouldn't do anything.)

　　I can already see that many people do not believe the above judgment. They still do not believe that those who make content and products seriously can take most of the cake, and the "traffic thinking" and "platform thinking" they developed in the mobile Internet era will eventually disappear, although this process will take a long time. This is normal, and the times will eventually prove who is right. Before the nomadic cavalry saw the dark muzzle of the Maxim machine gun, they always thought that their conquest would last until the end of the world, instead of being reduced to a curious display in a museum.