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As usual, the new forces announced their sales on the 1st of each month. In July, Weilai was once again ranked at the end of the first echelon of the new forces, but the news of the layout of 100,000-level low-end brands still allowed it to grab it. More heat.

We interviewed a NIO insider and got some information about the low-end brand:

Positioning: The new brand is codenamed Firefly. This brand is not the previously exposed Alps, but the third brand of NIO, focusing on the lower-end 100,000-level entry market . Firefly will have an independent research and development system and will only be sold in the European market in the early stage. So far, the three brands of "Firefly-Alps-NIO" have completed full coverage of the mainstream market. Inside Weilai, the three major brands are also regarded as a stepped matrix like Toyota's "Suzuki, Toyota, and Lexus".

Progress: Firefly's first model is an A0 entry-level sedan , positioned similar to the BYD Dolphin, with a price of 100,000-200,000 yuan, equivalent to about 20,000-30,000 euros. The car is currently in the research stage and is expected to be mass-produced in 2024. It will take the lead in pilot sales in several European countries and will not be sold in China in the early stage.

Technology: The new car will support battery replacement and be equipped with L2+ assisted driving. Considering the entry-level positioning, the Firefly will not be equipped with lidar and NOP.

Why are there fireflies?

As we all know, Weilai has already begun to deploy the Alpine brand and wants to enter the 200,000-300,000 market where the Model 3 is located. Now that there is no shadow in the Alps, why does NIO want to deploy a lower-priced car brand?

Back in August a year ago, Li Bin led a team to visit Wuling's new four modernization exhibition hall and new energy assembly workshop, and test-drive Wuling's latest new energy model - Baojun KiWi EV. Li Bin praised Baojun's originality, sense of technology and future, and even started Baojun's sales: "NIO owners, if the second car in the family should be a product like KiWi EV, which is fashionable and young. , fun."

At that time, Weilai had just revealed that it planned to establish a "sub-brand" (that is, Alps). Li Bin's trip to Wuling caused many people to speculate that Weilai's "sub-brand" was going to grab Wuling's cake.

However, this statement was quickly denied by Li Bin. In the 2021 second quarter earnings call of Weilai, Li Bin said that the new brand "will not enter Wuling Hongguang's market segment", but hopes to provide better products and services at a lower price than Tesla.

Looking at it now, this trip to Wuling still made Li Bin think of an electric car. The above-mentioned NIO insiders told us that the Firefly project was launched at the beginning of this year.

Sales pressure may be the main reason for Weilai to launch Firefly. For a long time, Weilai has been focusing on the luxury car market of more than 300,000 yuan. According to the data, from January to July 2022, the total delivery volume of Weilai reached 60,879 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. In July, NIO delivered 10,052 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. At the same time, the average selling price of bicycles further increased, exceeding 420,000 yuan.

Although the price of bicycles has steadily increased, NIO's competitors are becoming more and more powerful. Li Auto has launched the L9 model priced at 459,800 yuan, and the Xiaopeng G9 priced at more than 300,000 yuan will be available for pre-order in August. These two cars will be the direct rivals of ES8 and ES6.

Nezha and Leapao, who were in the second echelon of the new forces before, have also been very fierce recently, with monthly sales exceeding the threshold of 10,000 units, and even surpassing Weilai several times. The two car companies are also trying their best to push their products up, launching the 300,000-class Nezha S and Leapmotor C01.

In addition, the high-end brands and high-end models incubated by traditional car companies are also intensifying the competition in the high-end market. The sales of Jikr and Wenjie are steadily increasing. The addition and rise of these brands are constantly compressing the living space of Weilai. Previously, Weilai, and in recent months, Weilai has always ranked at the bottom of Wei Xiaoli's top three, and was surpassed by Nezha and Leapao in July.

Alps is the main driver for NIO to expand sales in China. The brand is positioned at 200,000-300,000 yuan, which is the benchmark for Tesla Mode3/Y. However, BYD Seal and Changan SL03 have already taken the lead in this market. The sales of the two models in the terminal market are also very hot. The supply of these two models has already been released. A wider and faster layout is needed to ensure the development of the brand.

NIO started to enter the European market in the second half of 2021, but there has not been much improvement so far. Data shows that in 2021, NIO will sell 200 ES8s in Norway, and 550 this year, ranking only 35th in the sales list of pure electric models.

This is mainly because NIO's existing product lines are not suitable for Europe. ES6, ES8, ET5, and ET7 are all large B- and C-segment cars, while the European market has always been dominated by A0 and A00-class cars. In the era of cars, small cars are still the main theme of Europe. In the European EV sales data in 2021, except for ID.4 and Model 3, almost all of the TOP10 are A0 and A00-class cars.

As a car company listed on the US stock market, Hong Kong stock market and Singapore, this performance is obviously not enough to make a big pie for global investors. Weilai needs to quickly expand its sales figures and broaden the development dimension of the brand. At present, only Tesla has a strong performance in Europe, and the future of Alps is not yet judged. Instead, electric cars have more opportunities.

Moreover, although Li Bin kept saying that he would not grab Wuling's market, China's electric vehicle market is still a typical dumbbell-shaped structure. Hongguang MINI EV and BYD Dolphin are very popular in the terminal market. If Firefly is sold in China, its prospects are also better than Alps. more expansive.

What are the advantages of fireflies in Europe?

The first is battery replacement, and the second is intelligence.

The price of pure electric cars in Europe is generally around 30,000 euros. For example, the ID.3 costs 30,000-38,000 euros, the Renault ZOE is 30,000-32,000 euros, and the Fiat 500e starts at 20,000 euros. The price will also be around 30,000 euros, but the addition of the Baas solution can further reduce the price of Firefly and help it open up in Europe more quickly.

For power exchange, Weilai has already started its layout in Europe. On July 30, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economy Peter Sialto and NIO European Vice President Zhang Hui jointly announced in Budapest, Hungary, that NIO Energy Europe, which NIO invested in and built in Pest State, Hungary, will open in September. put into operation.

NIO Energy's European factory covers an area of about 10,000 square meters. It is the first factory built overseas by NIO, and is also the European manufacturing center, service center and R&D center for NIO's power-on products. Its main business includes battery swap manufacturing and after-sales service. , NIO European power-on business training, and research and development of power-on products.

With the current sales of ES8 in Europe, there is no need for Weilai to rush to build a charging and replacement factory, which is obviously prepared for greater sales. Due to the limitation of the body size, the Firefly cannot use the battery of the NIO brand 5678 model with high probability, and needs to be developed separately. Since the first stop of Firefly is in Europe, and the market prospects are better, Weilai is bound to build a factory in Europe to produce power-on and power-exchange facilities.

In terms of smart advantages, looking at the current hot-selling electric cars in Europe, most of them do not have smart cars, but are simply means of transportation. This is mainly because the consumption concept of the European and American markets after a century of development is very conservative, consumers have no obsession with intelligence, and old car companies such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, and BBA are not good at intelligent technology. Therefore, European car parks have not yet set off a fanatical intelligent revolution like the domestic ones.

This does not mean that Europeans are stubborn, and market education always takes time. After all, a few years ago, we had a dispensable attitude towards smart car machines, and many people even laughed at the big screens of the new forces. Now the situation is completely the opposite. With the deepening of the European automobile revolution, intelligence will also be placed in a higher and higher position, which is precisely the advantage of Firefly.

It is worth noting that European countries have various languages, and NIO's European version of the car needs to be launched in multiple languages. However, NIO insiders told us that NIO’s car system is developed based on the Android system. As long as the language package is replaced and the software ecosystem mainly connected to Google is connected, it can be applied to the European market. The cost is very low and there is no difficulty in development.

Of course, Rome was not built in a day, and Weilai still faces this huge challenge in developing its brand matrix downwards. First of all, Alps is still missing, and launching a firefly project will inevitably require a lot of personnel recruitment and preliminary preparations, which will require a lot of money. Both brands are expected to be mass-produced and delivered in 2024, plus capacity and sales. Poe also needs a certain amount of time, and Weilai needs to continue blood transfusion for at least two new brands for up to 3 years.

And Weilai, which has been established for 8 years, has not yet achieved profitability. In 2021, NIO will have a net loss of 4.02 billion yuan and a cash reserve of 55.4 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, Weilai's net loss was 1.78 billion yuan, and its cash reserves shrank to 53.3 billion yuan. Under the background of the rapid increase of pressure on the parent brand and the difficult profitability, Weilai, which promotes two new brands at the same time, may face financial difficulties again.

At present, the new energy vehicle market in China and even in the world is in a period of explosion. For any automobile manufacturer, sticking to one market segment is not a time for long-term development. With the help of the east wind of the general environment, it is possible to quickly expand the boundaries to seize the market. Get ahead. Especially for Weilai, the Alps and Firefly projects are more needed to increase sales figures and improve profitability.