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　　After the successful upgrade of "Merge", which was concerned by the whole network , the cryptocurrency market including Ethereum did not get out of the independent market .

　　On September 20 , the latest market data showed that the current price of Ethereum has reached $ 1,360 , a weekly drop of 20%; Bitcoin also fell below the key point of $ 20,000 , with a price of $19,312, a weekly drop of 13.2 %. Five days before the Ethereum merger on September 15, the price of Ethereum was still close to $1,800 , but it fell below $1,300 yesterday.

　　Bitcoin has been trading above $20,000 for most of the past four months since the cryptocurrency slumped in May , but recently hit its lowest point since May.

　　Specifically , the data on the chain is not optimistic . According to data from CoinShares, ETH-related investment products saw net outflows for the fourth consecutive week in the period ended Sept. 16, with outflows exceeding $15.4 million in new capital. During the sell-off, Ethereum ’s trading volume increased rapidly . Its market share hit an all-time high of nearly 70% relative to Bitcoin. “The massive liquidation of leveraged long positions in the derivatives market has exacerbated the drop in spot prices,” a report from crypto data firm Kaiko sought to explain why Ethereum fell so much after the merger.

　　Zhang Shigen, a researcher of Distributed Technology, told Jiemian News : "The price reflects people's expectations. Before the merger of Ethereum, people who believed that the merger of Ethereum was good purchased in advance. After the merger was successful, there was no new positive expectation to support, so these people There is no new purchasing power. Some of the selling comes from miners. In the PoW era, miners only need to sell part of the Ethereum to pay the electricity bill. After PoW to PoS, the core interests of miners are touched, which leads to revenge from miners. ”

　　However, representing the interests of miners , the price of ETHW , a new token that emerged from the hard fork of Ethereum, has fallen by more than 80% since it was listed on FTX , and it is also facing the threat of re-fork .

　　It is also worth noting that the US regulators have recently begun to adjust the regulatory language of Ethereum in an attempt to increase its regulatory scope . When the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a federal lawsuit against a cryptocurrency practitioner on Monday , it mentioned that “the entire Ethereum is under U.S. regulation.” In paragraph 69 of the lawsuit, the SEC mentioned that the lawsuit not only Because the crypto practitioner ’s case involves transactions taking place in the United States, and because, by its very nature, the entire Ethereum network falls under the purview of the U.S. government. Currently, 45.85% of Ethereum validators are from the United States, according to Etherscan. By contrast, the second-largest node density is in Germany, at 19% .

　　In the short term , the Fed's rate hike policy, which will be announced on Thursday, firmly holds the fate of cryptocurrencies . At 14:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, September 21 (02:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday), the Federal Reserve’s FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s monetary policy press conference.

　　Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points in the past two weeks with the release of the U.S. CPI data that rose more than expected The interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points per month and 50 basis points in December, and the final interest rate will rise to 4%-4.25% by the end of 2022.

　　With the gradual integration of cryptocurrencies into the global economic system , global macro changes dictate their final direction , and it is difficult for cryptocurrencies to get out of the independent market in the short term .

　　Some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency options that will be delivered next Friday will also have a certain impact. From the current data, the biggest resistance level for Bitcoin is $23,000. Unless the interest rate hike and the terminal interest rate are expected, it will be completely Not possible. The current short-to-long ratio is 0.56, and the bullish sentiment is still dominant. The current open options are nearly 90,000 bitcoins , and the expected amount is about 1.7 billion US dollars.

　　As for Ethereum , after the successful upgrade , the next step will be an upgrade called "Shanghai" . Zhang Shigen, a researcher of Distributed Technology, told Jiemian News that after the “ Shanghai ” upgrade, the Ethereum pledged in the Beacon Chain can start to be withdrawn, and there will be a certain degree of selling pressure; after Ethereum is converted to PoS, will the financial services derived from Ethereum PoS be possible? Attracting more traditional funds is an important factor affecting the price trend of Ethereum, which may be judged by observing the growth of the number of Ethereum PoS pledges . If the entire cryptocurrency wants to usher in the next bull market, the blockchain needs to be applied on a larger scale, and traditional users enter the Web3 field without perception, which requires more innovation to support .