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　　Recently, according to foreign media reports, a person close to Japan’s SoftBank Group said that SoftBank is considering launching a third Vision Fund. The size of the fund has not yet been finalized. It may be launched early next year, or it may eventually choose not to launch.

　　Why is SoftBank considering launching a third Vision Fund at this moment, instead of trying to do its own Vision Fund 2 ?

The " blockage " of 　　Vision Fund 2 is one reason. Public information shows that Vision Fund 2 has deployed more than 85% of its $ 56 billion in committed capital , while the Latin American fund has invested nearly 95% of its $ 7.6 billion capital pool as of June 30 . The 269 investments currently held by the Vision Fund 2 have a total cost of $ 48.2 billion, but the cumulative investment return is only $ 37.2 billion.

　　The Vision Fund 2 faced difficulties in raising funds when it was prepared, and in the end, most of it was independently funded by SoftBank. At present, this fund has no new source of investment and must rely on the recovery of profits from past investments. With most of the startups in the Phase 2 portfolio unprofitable, SoftBank can only continue to increase its cash holdings by selling other assets. As of June 30 , its cash holdings had exceeded $ 42 billion , trending toward a " peak . " Coupled with the stagnation of the U.S. stock IPO market this year, the second phase of the Vision Fund has less and less room for maneuver.

　　On the other hand, the massive loss of top-level talents in SoftBank also has an impact on SoftBank’s raising of external funds.

About half of Vision Fund leaders and managing directors have left SoftBank since 2020 , 　　according to a PitchBook analysis of SoftBank departures . During that time, SoftBank's board lost 11 of its 15 directors , three of whom had been with SoftBank Group for more than a decade.

　　The departure of a large number of SoftBank executives not only means the strengthening of Sun Zhengyi's centralization, but also represents the loss of the vision fund's diversified investment ideas. Several executives who recently left SoftBank are actually direct operators of several of the Vision Fund's truly successful projects, including Uber , Slack and DoorDash .

　　Crowley, SoftBank’s former chief operating officer, has previously led several turnaround efforts and spearheaded SoftBank’s once-aggressive and successful Latin America strategy. After his departure, the Latin American investment team he established was also dismantled.

　　It is obviously more difficult for the Vision Fund 2 to turn losses into profits in this situation.

　　In a 2016 paper, Harvard researchers L Vashina and Lerner found that institutions that lost partners had a disadvantage in raising new capital. Consistent leadership is important to private equity investors , and LPs (specific outside investors that private funds find in the process of raising capital) will often require a “key person” clause in the commitment agreement to prevent the fund from failing when key leadership does not. Invest on the spot.

　　It is worth noting that if SoftBank launches a new Vision Fund, the required assets may still need to use SoftBank's own cash.

　　SoftBank's performance has been red for two consecutive quarters. In the fiscal quarter from April to June this year , SoftBank's net loss reached 3.16 trillion yen (about 158.4 billion yuan), setting a record for SoftBank Group's single-quarter loss, while it lost 2.1 trillion in the previous fiscal quarter. JPY. Masayoshi Son also warned of layoffs at an earnings conference in early August , saying the Vision Fund's staff may need to be  " significantly reduced . " According to foreign media reports, the layoffs may affect more than 20% of the Vision Fund 's 500 employees .