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　　PC shipments have exploded over the past two years when people were quarantined at home during the pandemic. And now, that growth has finally disappeared.

　　On August 8, local time, memory chip company Micron warned that PC demand was weak and the market was full of challenges. Nvidia also pre-released its quarterly earnings report, with revenue of only $6.7 billion in the second quarter, far lower than the previously expected $8.1 billion, shocking Wall Street.

　　Earnings from chip giants such as Intel and AMD also suggest that the PC market is slowing across the board.

　　Revenue in Intel's client computer group fell 25% year over year due to weak PC demand. Intel previously said it would freeze hiring in the division that makes chips for desktop computers and laptops due to a decline in sales prospects.

　　AMD CEO Su Zifeng said that AMD tends to be conservative in its outlook for the PC business in the coming quarters. Microsoft said a slowdown in production and a deterioration in the PC market cost its Windows OEM business $300 million. This business provides OEM versions of Windows systems to PC manufacturers. In addition, South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix is considering whether to cut its capital spending in 2023 by a third.

　　In other words, the boom in PC sales growth has come to an end. During the heyday of the past two years, PC sales had experienced double-digit year-over-year growth, according to market research firm IDC. That's not surprising, given that the PC sales bubble is destined to burst.

IDC 2012-2021 Worldwide PC (Desktop, Notebook, Workstation) Shipments Source: CNBC

　　Before the pandemic hit in 2020, PC sales were either down year-over-year or flat for years. With the spread of the epidemic, only relying on smartphones to meet the needs of home office and learning, the PC industry has returned to strong growth. As users walk out of their homes again, this wave of dividends gradually fades.

　　Still, there is hope for the PC industry. Mikako Kitagawa, research director at market research firm Gartner, believes the industry will eventually return to growth, but it will take longer than expected.

　　PC Industry Slowly Returns to Growth

　　Before the outbreak, the PC industry had been severely impacted. According to IDC data, for the whole year of 2019, global PC shipments only increased by 2.7% year-on-year. At the time, even this tiny increase was considered a miracle, as the last year-over-year increase was in 2011.

　　With the outbreak of the epidemic, many parts of the world have entered quarantine mode. With students and office workers as the main force, computers have become the rigid needs of many people, and PC sales have surged accordingly. According to IDC data, in the third quarter of 2020, global PC shipments were 81.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; in the fourth quarter of 2020, shipments were 91.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%.

　　But now, PC sales have plummeted. Gartner reports that in the second quarter of 2022, PC shipments dropped significantly by 12.6%. "The boom is definitely over, and the double-digit year-over-year growth is gone," Mikako Kitagawa said. "This year, we expect PC shipments to decline by 9% year-over-year."

　　She expects the market to return to growth sometime in the next five years, but probably only by a single-digit percentage.

　　Currently, companies are buying laptops to equip their employees working from home with office equipment, but this trend will slow as they return to work.

　　As far as consumers are concerned, as computers are becoming more and more durable, and a computer can be used for five years or more, the frequency of replacement is also reduced.

　　Although sales have declined, the explosive growth brought about by the "epidemic dividend period" has still helped the PC industry to a certain extent: expanding the number of devices in possession and cultivating user habits.

　　PC users will need new products

　　Although PC sales will decline year-on-year, the overall number of PC users has increased due to the rapid growth during the epidemic. Although sales cannot maintain the high level during the epidemic, Mikako Kitagawa believes that total sales will not fall below pre-epidemic levels.

　　"While consumers don't switch phones too quickly, they will always switch after a few years," she said. "We don't think consumers' PC habits will change easily."

　　She noted that consumers are becoming more accustomed to using PCs for everything from online fitness classes to video chats. In addition, many gamers will continue to upgrade the latest computer.

　　However, some analysts believe that the market is facing the risk of a full-scale decline as consumers return to using smartphones and tablets for their daily work. In addition, consumers will also be more cautious about switching to a new phone given a potential economic downturn. In this case, U.S. users may continue to use older computers for some time. As a result, the end of the PC sales boom could turn into a slow, years-long slide, causing even more pain for the PC industry. (Viking)