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The ideal explosion model is not working?

  • joy
  • 2022-08-18 13:17:48
  • 312 read
  Li Li released its second-quarter financial report , and investors only care about one question :  Will the id...

  Li Li released its second-quarter financial report , and investors only care about one question :

  Will the ideal L9 attack the ideal ONE?

  Sophisticated investment institutions analysts try to find the answer to this question from multiple perspectives :

  Is the reason for the decline in the delivery guidance in the third quarter due to lower expectations for the Ideal ONE ; whether the recent weakening of the Ideal ONE orders is due to users switching to the Ideal L9 ; the Li Li ONE has started to sell does it mean that the Li Li ONE orders have declined? Action ?

  For the ideal after the ideal ONE has passed 200,000 vehicles all the way we must face another question is there a possibility that every model is a hit ?

  Ideal starts to lose money again

  The ideal who is best at cutting money in the second quarter of this year pulled the loss to 4.1 billion yuan .

  From the perspective of long-term investment in car building losing money is almost an inevitable process For ideals it means a rational review of new cars it will be a long-term process for new car companies to achieve sustained profitability especially before the product scale is fully formed excellent product strategies still cannot resist various possible markets. risk .

  In the third quarter of last year Ideal’s net loss narrowed sharply Last year ’s Q4 made a profit , and this year’s Q1 also maintained a small loss of tens of millions As the first new car company to significantly reduce the loss margin and even make a profit for a time Ideal's financial data performance has always shown more positive signals than NIO and Xpeng .

  However with the launch of new models Li Auto's net loss widened again in the second quarter of this year This kind of fluctuation is understandable : the ideal L9 has just entered the market cycle and the new model, the ideal L8 , and the pure electric model that may be launched next year, require more investment from the ideal .

  This also means that as the most profitable ideal among Wei Xiaoli, stable profits cannot be achieved until the product structure is fully formed .

  In terms of gross profit margin Ideal maintains a gross profit margin level of more than 20% .

  According to the financial data of the second quarter , the profit margin of Li Auto’s vehicle sales in the quarter was 21.2%, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points; the gross profit was 1.878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.2%. ; Gross profit margin was 21.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1 percentage points.

  From the perspective of revenue performance Ideal's revenue in the second quarter fluctuates with the change in delivery volume The delivery volume of Li Auto in the second quarter was 28,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.2% and a month-on -month decrease of 4%. At the same time, Li Auto's revenue in the second quarter was 8.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.7% .

  Source: Ideal Car

  In the earnings conference call Li Xiang, founder of Ideal Auto, said that with the delivery of the Ideal L9 , the ideal gross profit margin will be higher The two models are mainly in the range of 300,000 and 400,000 The high premium capability in the mid-to-high-end market has brought a stable and high gross profit margin to Ideal .

  There are many products, and the left and right are fighting each other

  Compared with the cyclical financial data performance of increasing quarterly losses , the real question for the ideal at this stage is whether the ideal now has two models will it change because of the listing of the ideal L9 .

  At the same time , the ideal ONE, which has always maintained its explosive status , has also declined slightly with the launch of the ideal L9 .

  Especially in response to the slowdown in the sales of Ideal ONE Li Auto launched an insurance promotion of 7,000 yuan on August 14 which further confirmed that Ideal is trying to use preferential methods to restore the sales of Ideal ONE .

  When explaining that the ideal Q3 delivery guidance is only 27,000-29,000 units and the expectations are low Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Lili Auto, also said that when he gave the guidance for the third quarter, he had noticed the slowdown in the number of Lili ONE orders. .

  " When customers came to the store for a test drive of the Ideal L9, some customers who planned to buy the Ideal ONE model finally chose the Ideal L9, especially for customers with relatively flexible car buying budgets. "

Source: Ideal CarSource: Ideal Car

  Under the circumstance that the ideal ONE has maintained monthly sales of over 10,000 units, and the ideal L9 has 30,000 orders in hand, the delivery guidelines of the ideal Q3 are not based on the pre-orders of both models exceeding 10,000 units.

  Does this mean that Ideal ONE 's explosive status is just a staged market performance ?

  Regarding the Ideal ONE, Shen Yanan has always emphasized that in the price range of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, the Ideal ONE is still one of the most competitive products in the market compared with existing competing products.

  Ideal has been proving the success of its product strategy , but has ignored the true ability of explosive products to continue in the market in addition to product strategy .

  Recently Lei Jun mentioned a problem in his new book when he talked about explosive products :

  If a company can only make one or two generations of explosive products it obviously does not correctly understand "explosive products" nor does it establish a capability system for the explosive product model .

  In fact the " first-generation" new cars are almost all facing the same problem as the number of products increases it becomes more and more difficult to enjoy the dividends of each market segment .

  For the ideal although it has better product definition ability compared with models of the same level at the level of 300,000 and above , two extended-range SUVs for the family car market are laid out in a division of 100,000 Locate similar problems .

  Although new car companies like to fight back against traditional brands with updated product thinking sometimes they have to admit that traditional brands are indeed better at positioning in different segments and the ability to create classic models .

  The positioning division between BMW X3 and X5 can well avoid internal friction At this stage , both Ideal and Weilai have the problem of using too much force on a single model but insufficient consideration of market segments .

  What's more there is also a concern in the industry how long the ideal extension program can continue to develop and whether the ideal can withstand the competition of pure electric products in the future .

  For the extended-range route Li wants to insist that the extended-range route is still the best solution for SUVs for more than five years. However in the past few years, while the ideals are competing with each other , they have to face more models with extended range . How will the market choose ?

  The pits of the old products will be accelerated to be filled by the new products

  In this earnings call Li Auto also revealed the latest news of Li Li L8 .

  It will be faster than expected Li Xiang said compared to the ideal L9 's two-month rhythm from launch to delivery this new pure electric model will be faster by then .

  Li Li L8 is a replacement model for Li Li ONE and it is likely to replace Li Li ONE directly. At the same time, Ideal also took the opportunity to unify the naming of the product series Whether it is the appearance of the product or the upgrade of intelligent driving it may be the highlight of the ideal L8 .

  Li Xiang even bluntly said that when the ideal L8 is at this stage, don't look at the ideal ONE Rather than being honest , it is better to say that it is to find a step for the reduction of the ideal ONE 's order volume .

  At the same time , there is also new news about the pure electric models that Lili will launch next year . Lili also revealed the latest progress on overcharging :

  At present, it can charge 400 kilometers in ten minutes, and the ability does not seem to be under Xiaopeng, which has just released super-supplementary energy technology recently .

  Since the beginning of this year, there has been a lot of controversy over the hybrid technology route Recently, Xiaopeng has directly shouted the slogan of "eliminate hybridization" Hybrid and hybrid hybrid and pure electric seem to be focusing on mileage anxiety and energy supplementation which is more real in terms of user experience The ideal of revitalizing the program extension has been surrounded by more and more technical forms .

  Li Xiang also had to respond in person once again :

  "The range extension product is actually an electric car with a range extender, rather than a fuel car with a battery inserted in it. This is a completely different concept. If you don't even understand this thing, you have to talk about it. What is backward, advanced, etc. I think it is difficult for these companies to sell their products well.”


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